Prospects for future electricity production and consumption Q3 2024

Fingrid has updated the electricity production and consumption forecasts used in the planning of the transmission grid in autumn 2024. The long-term prospects remain unchanged: Finland's opportunities to compete for green transition investments are promising. Currently, especially the electrification of district heating production and data center investments are progressing rapidly in Finland.

Fingrid is preparing for a significant increase in electricity production and consumption. By 2030, electricity production and consumption could be 50 percent higher than today, and by 2035, even double compared to current levels. The strong growth is expected to start at the end of the 2020s. In addition to the electrification of society, the export of power-intensive industrial products from Finland is a significant driver of electricity consumption growth. Thus, Finland's competitiveness as an investment destination for power-intensive industries is crucial.

At the moment, investments in electric district heating and data centers are progressing rapidly. Large power-intensive investments in the hydrogen value chain are still pending both in Finland and elsewhere in Europe. However, the success of Finnish projects in the EU hydrogen bank auction is a promising sign of our competitiveness in hydrogen investments. Clean, affordable, and reliable electricity is Finland's key competitive advantage.

Connection inquiries to the transmission grid from electricity producers and power-intensive industries have continued to grow. There are over 35 gigawatts of grid connection inquiries related to power-intensive industrial projects. The amount of connection inquiries from wind and solar power projects is around 400 gigawatts. In addition, connection inquiries for electricity storage to the transmission grid have exceeded 10 gigawatts. The investment boom in electric boilers producing district heating and industrial steam has continued, and the cumulative number of electric boiler investment decisions has already exceeded 2 gigawatts. In the past year, several investment decisions for data centers have also been announced in Finland.

In addition to these well-progressing segments, there are growth opportunities for power-intensive industries in other sectors, such as hydrogen and e-fuel production, as well as the steel and battery industries. However, some projects have progressed slower than expected, resulting in a slight decrease in the growth rate of the consumption forecast used in the planning of the transmission grid compared to Fingrid's previous Q1/2024 forecast. A corresponding decrease is visible in the growth forecast for wind and solar power, as the growth opportunities for production are linked to consumption growth and vice versa.

Finland's climate goals and enabling clean transition investment projects that create economic prosperity for Finland require significant construction and development of the transmission grid.

In addition to significant transmission grid investments, we aim to significantly increase the utilization rate of the transmission grid. Means to achieve this could include, among other things, the renewal of transmission grid connection pricing and the introduction of flexible transmission grid services and flexible connections. 

The report and the prospects data attached.